sábado, 17 de outubro de 2009



Emilio

In the gone times of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, in his starts that goes so far away now, some Planalto Palace scholars made public their wisdom and mainstream media soon made them the chorus, that the collection of the taxes was insufficient to deal with so many expenses and that they should use the private sector to supplement the budget of the republic.

Everyone who had already grown still remember: the villains were the servants of the state and the state companies, and privatization would solve all this soon, freeing the country from all those parasites, freeing us all of those "useless dinosaurs” and even making cash to an administration that would be portentous.

More than grown since that time, I have tried all means to understand how to borrow money, with dates scheduled for return it and high interest rates, could solve the insufficient budget diagnosed.

Nothing would be resolved, however, quite the contrary, and it was simply a mechanism to transfer income from some sectors of society to others.



Distribution of the creditors of Domestic Securities

% of outstanding debt

other financial institutions 0.50%, non-financial corporations 3.20%, individuals 0.20%, other 1.10%, domestic banks 27.20%, foreign banks 7.40%, investment funds 56.40 % security entities 4.00%

Holders of Debt, 5 X Taxpayers, 0: Five trillion to zero ... Click on the illustration above to enlarge it.


It is absurd to cut investments to slow inflation. It's like killing the patient to overcome the fever. Effective and healthy is to expand production as it expands the money supply so as not to configure excessive monetary claims that may trigger or stimulate inflation.

The anti-inflationary little speech, however, was also a cloud of smoke, enthusiastically multiplied by the mainstream press, so that "left over" a lot more money to pay the debt and its interest rates, which, alone in the whole world, the government itself increased.

There should not have been me the only one with this difficulty, because, just in case, the wise men of the Palace also decided to implement the largest increase in tax burden of the Brazilian republican history.

The fact, dear reader, is that in these 15 years of FHC and Lula da Silva, we’ve paid, at least, five trillion reais (U.S.$ 1,00 = R$ 1,76 now) in interest and repayments of public debt.

"At least" because as a precaution I’ve not only fetch the numbers from the database of the secretary of the treasury, but also because I’ve made a point to catch them from the column that has no update or our numbers would be even more stratospheric.

Look, five trillion reais equals 35 times the total sales of Brazilian automobile industry in 2008, with exports, including to this also results for the agricultural machinery.

Weighing the little, but very major, that has advanced this our plan to Brazil, I say that with 500 billion reais in investments, we will build a Brazil with work and dignity for all brazilian people.

With a trillion in investments, forgive me for joking dear readers and Swedes, we’ll build 50 Swedens here.

Unfortunately, dear reader, I am writing to you that 5 trillion have been "transferred", while Brazil has been miring or a little more than that.

I’ve marked the values to add up in red, so you do not tire too much your eyes on the images of the database of the treasure that I’ve lined at the bottom of this page.

Compare them then to the sum of what was invested over the same fifteen years ...

An important detail: we still have a debt of about a trillion and a half.

What do we need to continue with this destructive merry-go-round for, if the Union also collects each year around a trillion and a half?

This billionaires-making machine that sterilizes the present and the future of the Brazilian people was put in place under President Fernando Henrique Cardoso and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, apparently failed to meet conditions to disable it or at least to make it compatible with a project of development.



General budget of the Union 2008

Agriculture 0.79%, agrarian organization 0.27%, industry 0.27%, commerce and services 0.14%, communications 0.04, transport 0.51%, energy 0.05%, sports and leisure 0.02 %, other special charges 5.13%, legislative 0.51%, judiciary 1.92%, essential to justice 0.46%, administration 1.40%, public safety 0.59%, national defense 2.01% , Foreign Affairs 0.20% social welfare 3.08%, health 4.81%, work 2.38%, education 2.57%, rights of citizenship 0.10%, culture 0.06%, urbanism 0.12 %, housing 0.02%, sanitation 0.05%, environmental management 0.16%, science and technology 0.43%

The chart above illustrates the allocation of budgetary resources of the Union in 2008. Click on to enlarge it!




Participation of indexers per type in debt held by the public. Pre-fixed securities, indices of prices, currency exchange, TR, other

December June

Source: National Treasury

As can be seen from the graph above, from the total Public Federal Domestic Debt in August 2007, 35.31% were indexed by SELIC, 1.09% by exchange rate, 24.85% for price indices and 36.43% for pre-set. The portion of debt corrected by the Selic rate peaked at 67.68% in April 2003.

The chart above shows the development of indices of public debt from 1999 to 2007. Click on to enlarge it!




Interest in the last twelve months

Values in%

Since 2006, the meetings of COPOM happened no longer monthly and have been given a larger range. Therefore, the repetition of indices, as in November and December does not mean that interest rates were maintained, but only that there was no meeting that month.

The above graph shows the falling of Selic rate at a given period. Each percentage point reduced from the rate, corresponds to tens of billions dollars that can now be invested in items of public interest. Click on the chart to enlarge it.


Below 15 years of database of the secretary of the treasure I've mentioned in the text. Just click on to expand them.

With a small red spot on the left, the values that matter to us year after year: interest and debt charges and amortization of Debt - Refinancing































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